[1]王茂书,刘锐,龙俊天,等.巴中地区强对流天气预报方法研究[J].气象研究与应用,2019,40(04):18-23.
　Wang Maoshu,Liu Rui,Long Juntian,et al.Study on the forecast method of strong convective weather in Bazhong area[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2019,40(04):18-23.
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巴中地区强对流天气预报方法研究()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第40卷
期数:
2019年04期
页码:
18-23
栏目:
天气气候
出版日期:
2019-12-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on the forecast method of strong convective weather in Bazhong area
作者:
王茂书1;  刘锐2;  龙俊天1;  袁亮1
1. 四川省巴中市气象局, 巴中 636001;
2. 四川省巴中市巴州区气象局, 巴中 636001
Author(s):
Wang Maoshu1;  Liu Rui2;  Long Juntian1;  Yuan Liang1
1. Bazhong Meteorological Service, Bazhong Sichuan 636001;
2. Bazhou District Meteorological Service, Bazhong Sichuan 636001
关键词:
强对流; 概念模型; 预报方法研究; 物理量
Keywords:
strong convection; conceptual model; prediction method research; physical quantity
分类号:
P46
摘要:
利用1987-2017年高空观测资料、地面观测资料，以及巴中市国家气象站、区域气象站资料，雷达资料，灾情资料，EC细网格预报资料，采用中尺度分析方法分析，总结了巴中地区强对流天气的四种概念模型、分类预报方法和地面要素临近预警指标。并基于EC细网格历史资料，采用主成分分析方法筛选物理量因子，通过配料法建立了巴中地区雷暴大风预报方程，实验表明当雷暴大风预报方程预报值大于60%时，巴中地区发生雷暴大风的概率很大，具有很好的指示作用。
Abstract:
Using the data of high altitude observation and ground observation from 1987 to 2017, as well as the data of Bazhong national meteorological station, regional meteorological station, radar data, disaster data, and EC fine grid forecast data, we chose the method of mesoscale analysis and summarized the four conceptual models, classified forecast methods and ground element approaching early warning indicators of severe convective weather in Bazhong region. Based on the historical data of EC fine mesh, the principal component analysis method was used to screen the physical quantity factor, and the thunderstorm gale forecast equation was established by the batching method. The experiment showed that when the forecast value of the thunderstorm gale forecast equation was greater than 60%, thunderstorms and winds had a large probability to occur in Bazhong.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-06-21。
作者简介:王茂书(1984-),男,主要从事短期天气预报。E-mail:wangmaoshu2003@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01