[1]郭彬,卓健,周冬静,等.基于智能计算的广西大风短临预报预警系统的产品检验[J].气象研究与应用,2021,42(01):80-84.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.1.14]
　Guo Bin,Zhuo Jian,Zhou Dongjing,et al.Product inspection of Guangxi gale short-term forecast and early warning system based on intelligent computing[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2021,42(01):80-84.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.1.14]
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基于智能计算的广西大风短临预报预警系统的产品检验()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第42卷
期数:
2021年01期
页码:
80-84
栏目:
新技术应用
出版日期:
2021-03-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Product inspection of Guangxi gale short-term forecast and early warning system based on intelligent computing
作者:
郭彬1;  卓健2;  周冬静1;  苏彦1;  毛家燊1;  陈少斌1;  奉意杰3
1. 崇左市气象局, 崇左 532200;
2. 广西壮族自治区气象信息中心, 南宁 530022;
3. 广西壮族自治区气象技术装备中心, 南宁 532200
Author(s):
Guo Bin1;  Zhuo Jian2;  Zhou Dongjing1;  Su Yan1;  Mao Jiashen1;  Chen Shaobin1;  Feng Yijie3
1. Chongzuo Meteorological Bureau, Chongzuo Guangxi 532200;
2. Guangxi Meteorological Information Center, Nanning Guangxi 530022;
3. Guangxi Meteorological Technical Equipment Center, Nanning Guangxi 532200
关键词:
智能计算; 大风; 短临预报; 预警系统; 验证
Keywords:
gale short-term early warning; accuracy; effective early warning
分类号:
S42
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.1.14
摘要:
利用机器学习和人工智能技术研发了广西大风短临预报预警系统，该系统的产品与同期广西各地气象局发布的大风预警信号（以下简称“人工预警”）进行比较分析。结果表明：（1）按业务评分规定，大风预警系统在漏报率和命中率方面更优，人工预警在TS评分和空报率方面更优；（2）有效提前预警情况下，大风预警系统在大风蓝色、黄色预警和不分级预警中TS评分较高。基于对大风预警系统和人工预警的数量、TS评分和预警提前量的差异分析，广西大风短临预报预警系统的产品性能达到同期人工预警水平。
Abstract:
Based on machine learning and artificial intelligence technology, Guangxi gale short-term forecasting and early warning system was developed. In order to evaluate the forecasting and early warning ability of the system, the products of the system were compared with the gale early warning signals(hereinafter referred to as"manual early warning") issued by meteorological bureaus of Guangxi in the same period. The results showed that(1) according to the business scoring rules, the gale early warning system was better in the missing report rate and hitting accuracy, while the manual early warning system was better in the TS score and empty report rate.(2) In the case of effective early warning, the gale warning system had a higher TS score in the blue, yellow warning and non-graded gale warning. Based on the difference analysis of the number, TS score and early warning amount, the product performance of Guangxi gale short-term early warning system reached the level of manual early warning in the same period.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2020-05-09。
基金项目:广西气象科研计划面上项目（桂气科2019M24）
作者简介:郭彬(1995-),女,本科,助理工程师,主要从事气象预警服务工作。E-mail:834300039@qq.com
通讯作者:卓健(1972-),男,本科,高级工程师,主要从事网络和雷达管理工作。E-mail:261817252@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01