[1]徐庆娟,潘金兰,刘合香.基于二维云信息扩散和三维信息扩散的台风灾害风险估计[J].气象研究与应用,2021,42(03):23-30.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.3.05]
　Xu Qingjuan,Pan Jinlan,Liu Hexiang.Typhoon disaster risk estimation based on two-dimensional cloud information diffusion and three-dimensional information diffusion[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2021,42(03):23-30.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.3.05]
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基于二维云信息扩散和三维信息扩散的台风灾害风险估计()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第42卷
期数:
2021年03期
页码:
23-30
栏目:
研究论文
出版日期:
2021-10-08

文章信息/Info

Title:
Typhoon disaster risk estimation based on two-dimensional cloud information diffusion and three-dimensional information diffusion
作者:
徐庆娟1;  潘金兰1;  刘合香1; 2
1. 南宁师范大学数学与统计学院, 南宁 530100;
2. 广西北部湾海洋灾害研究重点实验室, 广西 钦州 535000
Author(s):
Xu Qingjuan1;  Pan Jinlan1;  Liu Hexiang1; 2
1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanning Normal University, Nanning Guaxngxi 530100;
2. Guangxi Beibu Gulf Marine Disaster Research Key Laboratory, Qinzhou, Guangxi 535000
关键词:
台风灾害; 二维云信息扩散; 三维信息扩散; 条件概率分布; 风险估计
Keywords:
typhoon disaster; two-dimensional cloud information diffusion; three-dimensional information diffusion; conditional probability distribution;  risk estimation
分类号:
P429
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.3.05
摘要:
基于二维云信息扩散和三维信息扩散提出了一个台风灾害风险估计模型，构建二维云信息扩散模型，估计不同风力等级和降雨极值下的台风灾害概率分布；利用三维信息扩散模型估计台风直接经济损失分布；基于条件概率分布将其合成风险，估计不同水平致灾因子作用下的台风灾害损失风险；并以2000—2017年华南台风为例，对登陆时最大风力等级和降雨极值发生的可能性及其直接经济损失分布进行估计，得到了不同风力等级和降雨极值下的台风灾害损失风险，估计结果与实际基本相符。
Abstract:
In this paper, a typhoon disaster risk estimation model was proposed based on two-dimensional cloud information diffusion and three-dimensional information diffusion. A two-dimensional cloud information diffusion model was constructed to estimate the probability distribution of typhoon disaster under different wind levels and rainfall extremes. The direct economic loss distribution of typhoon was estimated by using three-dimensional information diffusion model. Based on the conditional probability distribution, the risk was synthesized, and the typhoon disaster loss risk under different levels of hazard factors was estimated. Taking the typhoon in South China from 2000 to 2017 as an example, the possibility of maximum wind level and extreme rainfall at landing and its direct economic loss distribution were estimated, and the typhoon disaster loss risk under different wind levels and extreme rainfall were obtained. The estimated results are basically consistent with the reality.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2021-06-25。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金（41665006）、广西自然科学基金（2020GXNSFAA159103）、南宁师范大学博士科研启动项目（20180406001）
作者简介:徐庆娟(1979-),女,山东成武人,博士,硕士生导师,副教授,主要从事最优化方法、自然灾害风险分析和金融统计研究。E-mail:xuqingjuan@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01