[1]蒋亚平,农明哲,马智,等.2022年广西“6·11”极端暴雨成因及预报偏差分析[J].气象研究与应用,2023,44(01):57-63.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.1.10]
　Jiang Yaping,Nong Mingzhe,Ma Zhi,et al.Analysis of the causes and forecast deviations of the extreme rainstorm in Guangxi on June 11, 2022[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2023,44(01):57-63.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.1.10]
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2022年广西“6·11”极端暴雨成因及预报偏差分析()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第44卷
期数:
2023年01期
页码:
57-63
栏目:
龙舟水专刊
出版日期:
2023-03-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of the causes and forecast deviations of the extreme rainstorm in Guangxi on June 11, 2022
作者:
蒋亚平;  农明哲;  马智;  郭彬;  陆小晓;  黎福仁
崇左市气象局, 广西 崇左 532200
Author(s):
Jiang Yaping;  Nong Mingzhe;  Ma Zhi;  Guo Bin;  Lu Xiaoxiao;  Li Furen
Chongzuo Meteorological Bureau, Guangxi Chongzuo 532200, China
关键词:
极端暴雨; 暖区暴雨; 季风; MCC; “列车效应”
Keywords:
extreme rainstorm; warm-sector rainstorm; monsoon; MCC; train effect
分类号:
P458.1+21.1
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.1.10
摘要:
利用常规气象观测和NECP再分析资料,对广西2022年6月11日极端暴雨过程进行分析,结果表明:(1)本次过程具有暴雨范围广、累积雨量大、极端性强、致灾性高和双雨带的特点;(2)边界层侵入的浅薄冷空气是桂中雨带的重要触发机制,而桂南雨带则是由超低空急流脉动配合海陆地形的影响共同触发;(3)中尺度对流系统的有组织发展,以及回波在后向传播移动过程中形成"列车效应",同时配合季风爆发带来的充沛水汽供应和低质心暖云高效率降水是造成多地出现极端暴雨的重要原因;(4)在暖区降水的预报中,CMA-GD和CMA-MESO模式往往有较好的表现,预报员需加强中尺度模式的分析应用,警惕中尺度模式预报中突发的对流系统,有利于提高极端暴雨的预报能力。
Abstract:
Using conventional meteorological observation and NECP reanalysis data, an extreme rainstorm process in Guangxi is analyzed in this paper. The results show that:(1)This process is characterized by a wide rainstorm range, largely accumulated rainfall, strong extremes, high disaster-causing and double rainbands; (2) The shallow cold air intruding from the boundary layer is an important trigger mechanism for the rainbands in central Guangxi, while the rainbands in southern Guangxi are triggered by the ultra-low-level jet pulsations with the influence of land-sea topography;(3)The organized development of mesoscale convective systems and the formation of "train effect" during the backward propagation of echoes, together with the abundant water vapor supply brought by the monsoon outbreak and the high efficiency of precipitation from low-mass warm clouds, are important causes of extreme rainstorms in many places;(4)The CMA-GD and CMA-MESO models tend to have better performance in the forecast of precipitation in warm areas. Forecasters need to strengthen the analysis and application of mesoscale models and be alert to the sudden rise of convective systems in mesoscale model forecasting, which is conducive to improving the forecasting ability of extreme rainstorms.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2022-11-25。
基金项目:广西壮族自治区气象局面上项目(桂气科2023M29)、崇左市气象局面上项目(崇气科202101)
作者简介:蒋亚平(1993-),男,工程师,主要从事中短期天气预报服务。E-mail:lovjiangyp@sina.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01