[1]肖丹,胡超,陈宁,等.基于频率匹配法的降水预报订正[J].气象研究与应用,2023,44(03):28-33.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.3.05]
　XIAO Dan,HU Chao,CHEN Ning,et al.Calibration of precipitation forecasts using the frequency matching method[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2023,44(03):28-33.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.3.05]
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基于频率匹配法的降水预报订正()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第44卷
期数:
2023年03期
页码:
28-33
栏目:
出版日期:
2023-09-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Calibration of precipitation forecasts using the frequency matching method
作者:
肖丹1; 2;  胡超1;  陈宁1;  黄保云1
1. 眉山市气象局, 四川 眉山 620010;
2. 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 成都 610072
Author(s):
XIAO Dan1; 2;  HU Chao1;  CHEN Ning1;  HUANG Baoyun1
1. Meishan Meteorological Bureau, Sichuan Meishan 620010, China;
2. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters of Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
关键词:
频率匹配法; 降水频率; 降水订正; 卡尔曼滤波
Keywords:
frequency matching method; precipitation frequency; precipitation calibration; kalman filter
分类号:
P457.6
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.3.05
摘要:
使用四川省国家气象站2020年和2021年汛期逐日降水观测资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)两家数值模式24~72 h降水预报资料,采用频率匹配法订正两家模式的预报降水,并进行降水检验和个例对比分析。结果表明,频率匹配法使ECMWF、NCEP的小雨、暴雨预报技巧提升,但中雨、大雨的订正效果不佳。频率匹配法减小小雨空报率,使晴雨预报准确率大幅提升。频率匹配法减小暴雨漏报率,使暴雨TS评分提高,但它无法订正与观测雨量相差较大的暴雨漏报区。
Abstract:
Based on the daily observed precipitation of national meteorological stations in Sichuan in the flood season of 2020 and 2021, and the 24~72 h precipitation forecast data of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the frequency matching method is used to calibrate the precipitation forecast of the two models, and then precipitation tests and comparative analyses of individual cases are carried out. The results show that the frequency matching method improves the forecasting skills of ECMWF and NCEP for light rain and rainstorm, but the calibration effect is poor for moderate rain and heavy rain. The frequency matching method reduces the false alarm rate of light rain and improves the accuracy of clear-rainy forecast. Also it decreases the missing rate of rainstorm, make its TS score improve. But it is unable to calibrate the missed area of rainstorm which differs greatly from the observed rainfall.

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相似文献/References:

[1]廖胜石,卓健,陆甲.基于小时数据的广西汛期降水日变化特征[J].气象研究与应用,2023,44(02):27.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.2.05]
　Liao Shengshi,Zhuo Jian,Lu Jia.Analysis of diurnal variation characteristics of precipitation in Guangxi during the flood season based on hourly data[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2023,44(03):27.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.2.05]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2023-4-15。
基金项目:高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(SCQXKJYJXMS202205)和眉山市气象局创新发展专项(MSCXFZ202103)共同资助
作者简介:肖丹,高级工程师,主要从事天气预报与研究工作。E-mail:610158875@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01