[1]王建楠,李元良,温晓寒,等.基于云D-S证据理论的极端天气下电力系统应急能力评判[J].气象研究与应用,2024,45(01):42-48.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.1.08]
　WANG Jiannan,LI Yuanliang,WEN Xiaohan,et al.Emergency capability evaluation of power systems under extreme weather conditions based on cloud D-S evidence theory[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2024,45(01):42-48.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.1.08]
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基于云D-S证据理论的极端天气下电力系统应急能力评判()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第45卷
期数:
2024年01期
页码:
42-48
栏目:
能源气象
出版日期:
2024-05-07

文章信息/Info

Title:
Emergency capability evaluation of power systems under extreme weather conditions based on cloud D-S evidence theory
作者:
王建楠;  李元良;  温晓寒;  赖元威;  卢军严;  郑宇琦;  何青;  郭梽炜
广西电网有限责任公司南宁供电局, 南宁 530031
Author(s):
WANG Jiannan;  LI Yuanliang;  WEN Xiaohan;  LAI Yuanwei;  LU Junyan;  ZHENG Yuqi;  HE Qing;  GUO Zhiwei
Nanning Power Supply Bureau, Guangxi Power Grid Company Limited, Nanning 530031, China
关键词:
云模型; D-S证据理论; 层次分析法; 熵值法; 电力系统应急能力
Keywords:
cloud model; D-S evidence theory; analytic hierarchy process; entropy method; emergency capability of power system
分类号:
P429
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.1.08
摘要:
以提高应对极端天气下电力系统突发事件能力为目标,将电力系统应急能力作为研究对象,提出基于云模型和证据理论融合的评估算法。采用层次分析法和熵值法相结合的方法确定应急指标权重,运用云模型做为基础对电力系统应急能力进行评估,以解决评价指标模糊性和随机性的问题,并引入D-S证据理论对指标进行综合评估,构建极端天气下电力系统的应急能力评估模型。通过案例证明,该方法可以有效准确地定量和定性评估电力网系统的应急能力,为提高电力网系统的应急管理能力提供科学依据。
Abstract:
This article aims to improve the ability to respond to power system emergencies under extreme weather conditions, the emergency response capability of power system is taken as the research object, and an evaluation algorithm based on the fusion of cloud models and evidence theory is proposed. The combination of analytic hierarchy process and entropy method are used to determine the weights of emergency indicators, the cloud model is used as the basis to evaluate the emergency capacity of the power system, which is used to solve the problems of fuzziness and randomness of evaluation indicators, and the D-S evidence theory is introduced to comprehensively evaluate the indicators, and then a model for evaluating the emergency capacity of the power system under extreme weather conditions is constructed. It is proved through cases that this method can effectively and accurately evaluate the emergency capability of power grid systems quantitatively and qualitatively, and provide a scientific basis for improving the emergency management capability of power grid systems.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2023-12-14。
作者简介:王建楠(1993-),男,硕士,工程师,主要从事电网应急、电力系统分析等研究工作。E-mail:3089050975@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01