[1]周云霞,农孟松,黄荣,等.2023年广西高影响强对流天气特征及预报预警回顾[J].气象研究与应用,2024,45(02):95-101.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.2.16]
　ZHOU Yunxia,NONG Mengsong,HUANG Rong,et al.Review of the characteristics and forecasting warnings of high-impact severe convective weather in Guangxi in 2023[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2024,45(02):95-101.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.2.16]
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2023年广西高影响强对流天气特征及预报预警回顾()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第45卷
期数:
2024年02期
页码:
95-101
栏目:
技术总结
出版日期:
2024-06-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Review of the characteristics and forecasting warnings of high-impact severe convective weather in Guangxi in 2023
作者:
周云霞;  农孟松;  黄荣;  祁丽燕;  屈梅芳;  朱泳桦
广西壮族自治区气象台, 南宁 530022
Author(s):
ZHOU Yunxia;  NONG Mengsong;  HUANG Rong;  QI Liyan;  QU Meifang;  ZHU Yonghua
Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022, China
关键词:
强对流; 预报预警; 超级单体; 飑线
Keywords:
convective storms; forecasting and warning; supercell; squall line
分类号:
P458
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.2.16
摘要:
利用多源气象探测资料，对2023年广西高影响强对流天气特征及预报预警难点进行综合分析。结果表明：（1）全年出现5次区域性及以上强对流天气过程，总体偏少。冰雹集中出现在3月到5月。雷暴大风主要出现在3—9月，极大风速为 34.9 m·s-1。（2）产生冰雹的超级单体主要触发在锋面及锋前暖区，强的对流不稳定、能量和垂直风切变条件下锋前暖区需关注迅速发展降雹的超级单体，提前发布预警信号。（3）西南涡背景下的飑线大风天气由地面静止锋和干线触发；短临预报应考虑线状对流自组织作用将落区向南调整。（4）对类高架、暖区冰雹天气数值模式预报能力差，需加强机理研究提升客观化预报预警技术。
Abstract:
A comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of high-impact severe convective weather and the forecasting and warning challenges in Guangxi in 2023 was conducted using multiple data sources. The results show that: (1) There was a total of 5 regional and above severe convective weather events throughout the year，which were generally fewer compared with the climate state. Hailstorms were concentrated from March to May. Thunderstorm gust mainly occurred from March to September，with a maximum wind speed of 34.9 m·s-1. (2) Hail-producing supercells were mainly triggered at fronts and frontal warm zone under conditions of strong convective instability，energy，and vertical wind shear in frontal warm zones. Therefore，forecasters should be concerned about the rapid development of hail super monomers and issue early warning signals in advance. (3) Squall-line wind events under a southwest vortex background were triggered by ground stationary fronts and dry lines；short-term forecasters should consider the self-organising effect of linear convective to adjust the falling area to the south. (4) Numerical model forecasting capabilities were poor for elevated and warm-sector hail weather，and it is necessary to strengthen the mechanistic research to improve the objective forecasting and warning technology.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2024-5-20。
基金项目:广西自然科学基金项目（2022GXNSFBA035565）、广西气象科研计划重点项目（桂气科2021Z03）
作者简介:周云霞（1973-），高级工程师，主要从事天气预报研究。E-mail:13878131128@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01