[1]何慧,赖晟,郑凤琴,等.2023年6月一次北部湾低压极端暴雨过程天气气候特征[J].气象研究与应用,2024,45(02):102-108.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.2.17]
　HE Hui,LAI Sheng,ZHENG Fengqin,et al.Weather and climate characteristics of an extreme rainstorm process caused by a tropical depression in the Beibu Gulf in June, 2023[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2024,45(02):102-108.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.2.17]
点击复制

2023年6月一次北部湾低压极端暴雨过程天气气候特征()
分享到：

气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第45卷
期数:
2024年02期
页码:
102-108
栏目:
技术总结
出版日期:
2024-06-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Weather and climate characteristics of an extreme rainstorm process caused by a tropical depression in the Beibu Gulf in June, 2023
作者:
何慧;  赖晟;  郑凤琴;  刘璐
广西壮族自治区气候中心, 南宁 530022
Author(s):
HE Hui;  LAI Sheng;  ZHENG Fengqin;  LIU Lu
Guangxi Climate Center, Nanning 530022, China
关键词:
持续性极端暴雨; 北部湾低压; 副热带高压; 高低空急流
Keywords:
persistent extreme rainstorm; depression in the Beibu Gulf; subtropical high; high-and lowlevel jets
分类号:
P434
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.2.17
摘要:
利用逐日再分析资料,对 2023 年 6 月 7—10 日北部湾低压持续性极端暴雨过程的天气气候特征进行研究。结果表明，（1）持续性极端暴雨前期和期间，副热带高压异常偏北偏西，位置稳定。孟加拉湾—南海—菲律宾一带热带辐合带活跃，南海西部有低压系统生成，并移入北部湾。（2）季节内振荡（MJO）处在第2、3位相，受其东传影响，中高纬度环流形成的槽脊位置有利冷空气南下影响广西。中层500 hPa我国东北地区附近有东北低涡维持，低涡后部强盛偏北风引导冷空气南下，受偏北偏西的副高阻挡，有小股冷空气渗透南下影响广西。（3）低层850 hPa印度洋越赤道气流和西南季风强盛但活动偏南，印度洋—中南半岛—南海的西南风急流受台风”古超”阻挡转向成南风，使气流在北部湾形成气旋性弯曲。广西西北部有弱东北风，增强北部湾周边气流的气旋性辐合。（4）广西南部和北部湾一带位于 200 hPa 东亚副热带高空急流右侧与 850 hPa 西南风低空急流左侧，高空辐散和低层辐合，1 000~300 hPa水汽通量辐合区水汽条件充沛。中、低纬度天气系统的协同作用，为这次持续性极端暴雨提供有利的稳定大尺度环流背景，以及充分的热力、动力条件。
Abstract:
The weather and climate characteristics of the persistent extreme rainstorm process of a depression in the Beibu Gulf from 7 to 10 June 2023 were studied using daily reanalysis data. The results show that:（1）the subtropical high was abnormally north-westerly and in a stable position during the pre-and period of the persistent extreme rainstorm. The tropical convergence zone along the Bay of Bengal-South China Sea-Philippines was active，and a low-pressure system was generated in the western part of the South China Sea and moved into the Beibu Gulf.（2）The intra-seasonal oscillation（MJO）was in the 2nd and 3rd phases，influenced by its eastward transmission，and the position of the trough-ridge formed by the mid-and high-latitude circulation was favourable for cold air to move southward to affect Guangxi. There was a northeast low-vortex maintaining near the northeastern China at 500 hPa，and the strong northerly wind behind this vortex guided the cold air to the south，which was blocked by the north-westerly subtropical high， causing a small cold-air infiltration to affect Guangxi to the south.（3）The trans-equatorial airflow in the Indian Ocean and the southwesterly monsoon were strong at 850 hPa in the lower layers，but their activities were skewed to the south，and the southwesterly jets of the Indian Ocean-Central South Peninsula-South China Sea was blocked by Typhoon Guchol and shifted into southerly winds，which led to the cyclonic convergence of the airflow around the Beibu Gulf. There is a weak northeasterly wind in northwestern Guangxi，which enhanced the cyclonic convergence of the airflow around Beibu Gulf.（4）The southern part of Guangxi and the Beibu Gulf area were located to the right of the 200 hPa East Asian subtropical high-level jet stream and to the left of the 850 hPa southwesterly jet streams，with high-level divergence and low-level convergence，and abundant water vapour conditions in the 1 000~300 hPa water vapour flux convergence zone. Overall，the above collaborative effect of the mid-and low-latitude weather systems provided a favourable and stable large-scale circulation background，as well as adequate thermal and dynamical conditions for this persistent extreme rainstorm.

参考文献/References:

[1] 刘占明,陈子燊,胡宝清,等.广西环北部湾地区降水的时空变化特征[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2017, 56(4):154-160.
[2] 肖志祥,姚才,赵金彪,等.广西热带气旋预报业务和研究进展[J].气象研究与应用,2020,41(4):20-27.
[3] 李华实,王东海,陆虹,等.广西汛期大范围持续性强降水特征与天气学分型研究[J].热带气象学报,2023,39(2):242-255.
[4] 中国气象局国家气候中心.2023国内十大天气气候事件[N].中国气象报,2024-01-22.
[5] 杨彩福.北部湾台风[J].海洋通报,1986,5(3):87-89.
[6] 吕兆驩.北部湾台风的生消与发展[J].广西气象,1985(3):13-16.
[7] 陈见,赖珍权,罗小莉,等."尤特"超强台风残留低涡引发的广西特大暴雨成因分析[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(1):19-25.
[8] 陈见,孙红梅,高安宁,等.超强台风"威马逊"与"达维"进入北部湾强度变化对比分析[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(4):394-400.
[9] 覃皓,郑凤琴,伍丽泉.台风威马逊(1409)强度与降水变化的相互作用[J].应用气象学报,2022,33(4):477-488.
[10] 何小娟.广西北部湾地区台风暴雨的统计特征[J].气象研究与应用,2007,28(2):31-35,53.
[11] 黎树式,黄鹄,佟智成,等.广西北部湾地区热带气旋频数预测研究——基于线性回归模型[J].北部湾大学学报,2022,37(4):1-5.
[12] 黄忠,张东,林良勋.广东后汛期季风槽暴雨天气形势特征分析[J].气象,2005,31(9):19-24.
[13] 程正泉,陈联寿,李英.登陆热带气旋与夏季风相互作用对暴雨的影响[J].应用气象学报,2012,23(6):660-671.
[14] 刘爱鸣,刘铭,林毅.低空急流对0212号台风"北冕"后部暴雨影响的分析和数值试验[J].台湾海峡,2004,23(1):1-7.
[15] 王远超,黎玲.北部湾热带风暴的气候特征及生成形势[J].气象研究与应用,2007,28(增刊Ⅱ):38-39,52.
[16] 朱乾根,周伟灿,张海霞.高低空急流耦合对长江中游强暴雨形成的机理研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2001, 24(3):308-314.
[17] 王小曼,丁治英,张兴强.梅雨暴雨与高空急流的统计与动力分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2002,25(1):111-117.
[18] 柳龙生,许映龙.台风"暹芭"(2203)残涡陆上维持并引发大范围降水过程的成因[J].高原气象,2024,43(3):683-695.
[19] 丁一汇,张建云,许小峰,等.暴雨洪涝[M].北京:气象出版社,2009:1-290.
[20] 覃卫坚,李耀先,廖雪萍. MJO活动对广西6月阶段性降水的影响研究[J].气象研究与应用,2015,26(1):25-30.
[21] 周后福,陈健,姚筠,等.一次梅雨锋特大暴雨中尺度气旋和MCS的分析[J].气象科技,2023,51(4):551-561.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2024-4-26。
基金项目:广西重点研发计划项目（桂科AB21075008）、国家自然科学基金项目（42065004）
作者简介:何慧（1967—），正高级工程师，主要从事气候分析与预测。E-mail：hi.hehui@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01