[1]吴文倩.不同气象预测数据源对山地风电场风速预测准确率的影响分析[J].气象研究与应用,2022,43(01):31-35.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2022.1.06]
　Wu Wenqian.Analysis on the influence of different meteorological forecast data sources on the accuracy of wind speed prediction in mountain wind farms[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2022,43(01):31-35.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2022.1.06]
点击复制

不同气象预测数据源对山地风电场风速预测准确率的影响分析()
分享到：

气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第43卷
期数:
2022年01期
页码:
31-35
栏目:
研究论文
出版日期:
2022-03-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis on the influence of different meteorological forecast data sources on the accuracy of wind speed prediction in mountain wind farms
作者:
吴文倩
国家电投南宁生产运营中心, 南宁 530000
Author(s):
Wu Wenqian
Nanning Production and Operation Center of National Power Investment, Nanning 530000, China
关键词:
山地风电场; 风速预测; 准确率; 气象预测数据源; 对比分析
Keywords:
mountain wind farm; wind speed forecasting; accuracy; meteorological forecast data source; comparison and analysis
分类号:
P45
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2022.1.06
摘要:
在影响风电功率预测准确率的因素中,气象预测数据源的选取和组合影响较大。基于广西A、B两个山地风电场2020年2月1日至3月15日15min实测风速、4种单一气象数据源及3种混合订正气象数据源的预测风速,分析不同气象预测数据源对风电场风速预测准确率的影响。结果表明,多种数据源混合订正预测结果总体优于单一气象数据源预测结果,在预测模型优化过程中可重点研究混合订正气象数据源的应用。同一气象数据源在不同场站预测效果不一致,并无绝对优势。高分辨率气象数据源预测效果不一定优于低分辨率气象数据源。
Abstract:
The selection and ensemble of meteorological data sources have a great influence on the factors that affect the accuracy of wind speed prediction.In this paper,4 single meteorological data sources and 3 mixed-revised meteorological data sources of mountainous wind farm A and B in Guangxi were used to analyze the RMSE of wind speed prediction during February 1 to March 15,2020.The results show that the influence of different meteorological data sources on wind speed prediction accuracy of wind farms is mainly as follows:(1) The forecast accuracy of mixed-revised meteorological data sources is generally better than that of single meteorological data source,and the application of mixed-revised meteorological data sources can be mainly studied in the optimization process of prediction model.(2) The prediction effect of the same meteorological data source at different stations is inconsistent,and there is no absolute advantage.(3) The prediction effect of high-resolution meteorological data sources is not necessarily better than that of low-resolution meteorological data sources.

参考文献/References:

[1] 雷亚洲.与风电并网相关的研究课题[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(8):84-89.
[2] 薛禹胜,郁琛,赵俊华,等.关于短期及超短期风电功率预测的评述[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(6):141-150.
[3] Chai C I,Lee W J,Fuangfoo P,et al.System Impact Study for the Iinterconnection of Wind Generation and Utility System[J]. IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications,2005,41(1):163-168.
[4] 迟永宁,刘燕华,王伟胜,等.风电接入对电力系统的影响[J].电网技术,2007,31(3):77-78.
[5] Rahman S,Pipattanasomporn M. Operating Impacts and Mitigation Strategies with Largescale Wind Power Penetration in the United States[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(22):4-5.
[6] 蔡祯祺.基于数值天气预报NWP修正的BP神经网络风电功率短期预测研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2012.
[7] 白龙,吴息,丁宇宇,等.用于风电场功率预测的逐时风速预报[J].气象科技,2013,41(4):777-783.
[8] 马文通,朱蓉,李泽椿,等.基于CFD动力降尺度的复杂地形风电场风电功率短期预测方法研究[J].气象学报,2016,74(1):89-102.
[9] 余江.适用于风能预报额模式输出统计预报方法研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2014.
[10] 杨光焰.应用于风功率预测中的风速预报方法的探讨[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013.
[11] 王彬滨,吴息,余江,等.谐波分析方法在沿海风速数值预报订正的应用[J].热带气象学报,2016,32(5):752-758.
[12] 汪小明,尹笋,杨楠,等.基于小波分解和ELMAN神经网络的风速-风功率预测研究[J].陕西电力,2014,(9):11-14.
[13] 李慧玲.基于WRF模式和聚类分析的短期风电功率预测研究与应用[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2019.
[14] 戴华娟.组合预测模型及其应用研究[D].长沙:中南大学,2007.
[15] 杜钧.集合预报的现状和前景[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(1):16-28.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2021-10-21。
作者简介:吴文倩(1992-),女,工程师,从事风电功率预测、风资源利用研究。E-mail:1486358270@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01