[1]吕劲文,申华羽,涂小萍,等.宁波雷电时空分布特征及潜势预报方法探讨[J].气象研究与应用,2019,40(02):30-34.
　Lv Jingwen,Shen Huayu,Tu Xiaoping,et al.Discussion on the Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics and Potential Forecasting Method of Lightning in Ningbo[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2019,40(02):30-34.
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宁波雷电时空分布特征及潜势预报方法探讨()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第40卷
期数:
2019年02期
页码:
30-34
栏目:
天气气候
出版日期:
2019-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Discussion on the Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics and Potential Forecasting Method of Lightning in Ningbo
作者:
吕劲文;  申华羽;  涂小萍;  朱宪春;  陆鋆;  杨小荣;  周承
宁波市气象局, 浙江 宁波 315012
Author(s):
Lv Jingwen;  Shen Huayu;  Tu Xiaoping;  Zhu Xianchun;  Lu Yun;  Yang Xiaorong;  Zhou Cheng
Ningbo Meteorological Service, Ningbo Zhejiang 315012
关键词:
雷电; 时空分布; 潜势预报; GA-BP神经网络
Keywords:
lightning; temporal and spatial distribution; potential forecast; GA-BP neural network
分类号:
P457.9
摘要:
利用闪电定位仪资料分析了2010-2016年宁波市雷电的时空分布特征，根据雷电强度将6-9月雷电分为一般雷电和强雷电两组，结合NCEP再分析资料计算对流参数，运用GA-BP神经网络和费歇判别模型对雷电潜势预报进行分类方法探讨。结果表明：宁波年平均地闪次数为43223次，其中负地闪占比达95.2%；地闪的月际变化和日变化均呈单峰型，6-9月和14-19时分别为地闪次数最多的月份和时段；宁波雷电活动表现出一定的地域性，主城区以及海拔较高的奉化和宁海的西部山区是总地闪密度较大的区域。选择CAPE等4个对流参数参与建模，评估结果显示GA-BP预报准确率为71.60%，临界成功指数为56.60%，空报率和漏报率都在27%左右，模型表现出一定的预报技巧，并且该模型预报效果优于费歇判别模型。
Abstract:
In order to understand the regional regularity of lightning activities in Ningbo, the temporal and special distribution of lightning was studied by using the data from ADTD (Active Divectory Topology Diagrammer) lightning location systems from 2010 to 2016. According to the lightning intensity, the lightning from June to September is divided into two groups:general lightning and strong lightning. The convection parameters are calculated by NCEP reanalysis data. The classifcation method of lightning potential prediction is discussed by using GA-BP neural network and Fisher discriminant model. The results show that the annual average number of ground flashes in Ningbo is 43223, and the proportion of negative ground flashes is 95.2%. The intermonthly and diurnal variations of ground flashes show a single peak pattern, and the most frequent months and periods of ground flashes are June-September and 2 pm-7pm, respectively. In addition, Ningbo thunder and lightning activities show regional characteristics; the main urban area and the western mountainous area of Fenghua and Ninghai with higher altitude are the areas with larger flash density. Four convection parameters, such as CAPE, are selected to participate in the modeling. The evaluation results show that the accuracy of GA-BP prediction is 71.60%, the critical success index is 56.60%, empty report rate and false rate are both 27%. The model shows certain forecasting skills, and the forecasting effect of the model is better than the Fisher discriminant model.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-01-15。
基金项目:浙江省气象科技计划重点项目(2017ZD06)，宁波市气象科技计划项目(NBQX2015006B)
作者简介:吕劲文(1985-),男,硕士研究生,工程师,主要从事天气预报和服务研究。E-mail:jwlv1985@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01