[1]钱维宏,陈绿文,栗晗.中期模式扰动量在广州－东莞极端暴雨中的解释应用[J].气象研究与应用,2020,41(02):7-13.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2020.2.02]
　Qian weihong,Chen Lyuwen,Li Han.Interpretation and application of the anomalous parameters predicted by medium-range numerical weather forecast model in the Guangzhou-Dongguan extremely heavy rain event[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2020,41(02):7-13.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2020.2.02]
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中期模式扰动量在广州－东莞极端暴雨中的解释应用()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第41卷
期数:
2020年02期
页码:
7-13
栏目:
研究论文
出版日期:
2020-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Interpretation and application of the anomalous parameters predicted by medium-range numerical weather forecast model in the Guangzhou-Dongguan extremely heavy rain event
作者:
钱维宏1; 2;  陈绿文2;  栗晗3
1. 北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系, 北京 100081;
2. 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所, 广州 510080;
3. 河南省气象台, 郑州 450003
Author(s):
Qian weihong1; 2;  Chen Lyuwen2;  Li Han3
1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 10081;
2. Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080;
3. Henan Meteorological Observatory, Zhengzhou 450003
关键词:
中期模式产品; 解释应用; 扰动气流; 极端暴雨; 闪电密度
Keywords:
Production of the medium-range numerical weather forecast model; Interpretation and application; Anomalous flow; Extremely heavy rain event; Lightning density
分类号:
P456
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2020.2.02
摘要:
2020年5月22日凌晨，在珠三角地区发生了罕见的先有高闪电密度和随后具有“短时雨强强、累积雨量大”特征的局地特大暴雨，单站5min雨强达到37．3 mm。考虑极端暴雨发生的扰动涡度动力条件和扰动湿度水汽条件，跟踪了欧洲中期天气预报中心模式分析的和提前预报的850hPa扰动气流辐合线和其上的扰动湿涡度分布。结果表明，该中心的模式可以提前4—5d预报出扰动辐合线位置，而扰动湿涡度中心与暴雨位置有偏离。中期模式产品解释应用的前景是，扰动气流辐合线和其上的扰动物理量特征可为临近强对流天气的监测提供信息。
Abstract:
An extremely heavy rain event, which was characterized by preceding high lightning density and thereafter the anomalous intensity of the rainfall in both the minute-scale and the hour-scale, occurred in the Pearl River Delta region in the early morning of May 22, 2020. The peak 5 minute-precipitation recorded by Automatic Weather Station(AWS) was found to be up to 37.3 mm. The anomalous flow convergence line and the moist vorticity distribution at 850hPa were traced using the initially analyzed and predicted field of ECMWF, to reveal the anomalous vorticity and humidity condition favorable for the extremely heavy rain event. The results show that the anomalous flow convergence line can be predicted 4-5 days in advance by the ECMWF, while holding a bias between the predicted center of the moist vorticity and the position of the heavy rain event. One of the application prospects of the medium-range numerical weather forecast model is that the predicted anomalous flow convergence line as well as the physical parameters along it can provide critical background information for the nowcasting of the convective weather.

参考文献/References:

[1] 钱维宏,蒋宁,杜钧.中国东部7类暴雨异常环流型[J].气象,2016,42(6):674-685.
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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2020-05-30。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金（41775067）、广东省自然科学基金（2018A030313969）、广东省气象局科技项目（GRMC2017M01）
作者简介:钱维宏(1957-),男,博士,教授,研究方向:季风、海气相互作用。E-mail:qianwh@pku.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01