[1]范娇,曾小团,林振敏,等.高分辨率区域模式不同时间步长对一次强降水预报的影响[J].气象研究与应用,2023,44(01):33-38.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.1.06]
　Fan Jiao,Zeng Xiaotuan,Lin Zhenmin,et al.Influence of different time steps of high resolution regional model on heavy precipitation forecast[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2023,44(01):33-38.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.1.06]
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高分辨率区域模式不同时间步长对一次强降水预报的影响()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第44卷
期数:
2023年01期
页码:
33-38
栏目:
龙舟水专刊
出版日期:
2023-03-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Influence of different time steps of high resolution regional model on heavy precipitation forecast
作者:
范娇;  曾小团;  林振敏;  黄荣成
广西壮族自治区气象台, 南宁 530022
Author(s):
Fan Jiao;  Zeng Xiaotuan;  Lin Zhenmin;  Huang Rongcheng
Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022, China
关键词:
数值模拟; 时间步长; 强降水; 预报检验
Keywords:
numerical simulation; time step; heavy precipitation; forecast test
分类号:
P457.6
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.1.06
摘要:
使用华南短临预报模式本地化改造后的广西对流尺度数值预报模式系统,对2022年6月3-4日广西强降水过程进行数值模拟,研究不同时间步长对模式预报效果的影响。结果表明:(1)时间步长对位势高度、温度场和地面要素场的影响较小,对风场影响较大;(2)强降水区中低层物理量、t2m、u10m预报误差较小,模式预报偏差主要来源于高层物理量和v10m;(3)时间步长对模式降水预报有较大影响,时间步长越小(大),降水预报敏感度越大(小),大暴雨以上量级和范围预报越大(小);(4)无论24h还是逐小时ETS评分都反应出小时间积分步长对大量级降水的预报效果更好,且对强对流天气发展趋势有一定指示作用,大的时间积分步长预报效果则相反。
Abstract:
The Guangxi convective scale numerical prediction model system which was localization reconstructed by the South China Short-term approach Prediction Model(CMA_GZ_R1) is used to simulate a heavy rainfall process in Guangxi on June 3-4, 2022, during the dragon-boat rainy period, and the effects of different time steps on the model prediction are also studied. The results show that:(1)The time step has less influence on the geopotential height, temperature and surface element field, but a greater influence on the wind field;(2)The prediction errors of the physical quantities in the middle and lower layers, t2mand u10m in the heavy precipitation area are small, and the model prediction errors mainly come from the high-level physical quantities and v10m;(3)The time step has a greater influence on the model precipitation forecast, the smaller (larger) the time step, the greater(smaller) the precipitation forecast sensitivity, and the larger(smaller) the magnitude and range forecast above large rainstorms;(4)Both 24-hour and hourly ETS scores reflect that the small time integration steps are more effective in forecasting large- magnitude precipitation, and are indicative of strong convective weather trends, while large time integration steps have the opposite effect.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2022-11-25。
基金项目:广西自然科学基金项目(2022GXNSFAA035482)、广西气象科研计划青年人才培养项目(2022QN05)
作者简介:范娇(1993-),女,工程师,主要从事天气预报工作。E-mail:742895059@qq.com
通讯作者:曾小团(1971-),男,正研级高级工程师,主要从事天气预报技术研究与预报系统开发工作。E-mail:158083890@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01