[1]姚浪,吴姗,王璇,等.T639模式降水预报产品在毕节市的检验和分析[J].气象研究与应用,2016,37(01):30-33.
Yao Lang,Wu Shan,Wang Xuan,et al.Verification and analysis on T639 model precipitation forecast products of Bijie[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2016,37(01):30-33.
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T639模式降水预报产品在毕节市的检验和分析(
)
气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]
- 卷:
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第37卷
- 期数:
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2016年01期
- 页码:
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30-33
- 栏目:
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天气气候
- 出版日期:
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2016-12-20
文章信息/Info
- Title:
-
Verification and analysis on T639 model precipitation forecast products of Bijie
- 作者:
-
姚浪1; 吴姗2; 王璇1; 胡永松1
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1. 贵州省毕节市气象局, 贵州毕节 551700;
2. 毕节市七星关区气象局
- Author(s):
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Yao Lang1; Wu Shan2; Wang Xuan1; Hu Yong-song1
-
-
- 关键词:
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毕节; T639模式降水; 晴雨预报; 预报检验
- Keywords:
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Bijie; T639 model precipitation; rain or shine forecast; forecast verification
- 分类号:
-
P45
- 摘要:
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分析毕节本站2013年6月1日至2014年7月10日逐日降水概况,利用毕节本站逐日降水资料对T639模式降水预报产品进行本地化检验,结果表明:T639模式降水预报产品在毕节各检验时段内的晴雨预报准确率较不高,在45-50%之间;但随着预报时效延长,其准确率仍能稳定维持。通过对T639模式降水预报空报率和漏报率的统计分析,发现在毕节T639模式降水预报出现的错误以空报为主;并通过定量分析,得出当T639模式降水在毕节预报小雨量级的降水时,出现空报的概率最高。
- Abstract:
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Based on analysis of daily precipitation from June 1st, 2013 to July 10th, 2014 of Bijie weather station, localization verification on T639 model precipitation prediction products was made by using daily precipitation data. The results show that the accuracy of T639 forecast products in every testing period is not high (between45%-50%);But as the period extension of forecast validity, its accuracy maintain still. According to statistical analysis on false alarm ratio and fail alarm ratio of T639 model, it is found that the errors in T639 precipitation forecast give priority to false alarm; furthermore, when the T639 model is used for forecasting drizzle, the false alarm ratio reach the highest.
备注/Memo
- 备注/Memo:
-
收稿日期:2015-11-18。
基金项目:毕节市气象局2015年青年基金项目"针对影响毕节市天气的关键系统的数值预报产品客观检验及释用技术研究"(BJQN[2015]04)资助。
作者简介:姚浪(1989-),男,助工,主要从事短期天气预报工作。
更新日期/Last Update:
1900-01-01