[1]黄卓帆,梁岱云,李紫甜,等.2020年南宁“5·11”暴雨成因初探及可预报性分析[J].气象研究与应用,2022,43(03):56-61.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2022.3.10]
　Huang Zhuofan,Liang Daiyun,Li Zitian,et al.Study on the mechanisms and predictability of the rainstorm in Nanning on May 11, 2020[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2022,43(03):56-61.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2022.3.10]
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2020年南宁“5·11”暴雨成因初探及可预报性分析()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第43卷
期数:
2022年03期
页码:
56-61
栏目:
暴雨预报技术复盘总结
出版日期:
2022-09-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on the mechanisms and predictability of the rainstorm in Nanning on May 11, 2020
作者:
黄卓帆;  梁岱云;  李紫甜;  周琰;  冯艺昕
南宁市气象局, 南宁 530029
Author(s):
Huang Zhuofan;  Liang Daiyun;  Li Zitian;  Zhou Yan;  Feng Yixin
Nanning Meteorological Bureau, Nanning 530029, China
关键词:
暴雨; 复盘; 可预报性
Keywords:
rainstorm; review; predictability
分类号:
P458.121.1
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2022.3.10
摘要:
通过对2020年5月11日南宁市南部暴雨成因进行探究，结果表明，此次暴雨发生在副高边缘短波槽东移和低层切变线缓慢南移背景下，近海的水汽输送及本地充沛的水汽含量保证暴雨所需的水汽供应，南宁东南部午后位于锋前暖区中，对流容易在高能区被激发，形成准静止的中β尺度多单体线状强风暴；西部夜间受冷锋加强南移影响，暴雨云团与能量锋区的位置更接近。各家数值模式中ECMWF最优，预报降雨强度准确但落区偏北，是由于其对低层和地面辐合系统预报偏差以及不稳定能量的低估所致，类似条件下预报员应加强多源天气实时资料分析，将落区适当向南订正。
Abstract:
This paper explores the reasons for the formation of the rainstorm in southern Nanning on May 11, 2020. The results indicate that this rainstorm occurred in the background of the eastward movement of the short-wave trough at the edge of the subtropical high and the slowly southward moving low-level shear line. The transport of water vapor from the offshore and the abundant local water vapor content ensured the water vapor supply required by the rainstorm. The southeastern Nanning was located in the warm zone before the front in the afternoon, and the convection was easily excited at the high-energy area, forming a quasi-stationary meso-β multi-cell linear strong storm. Affecting by the enhanced cold front, the storms were closer to the energy front in the western Nanning during the night. Among the numerical models, ECMWF performed best, which forecasted rainfall intensity accurately but had northward errors in the forecast location of rainstorm, mainly due to the forecast deviation of the low-level, ground convergence system and the CAPE. Therefore, under similar conditions, forecasters should enhance the analysis of weather data from multiple sources, and correct the rainstorm area to the south appropriately.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2022-06-27。
基金项目:广西气象科研计划项目（桂气科2022M13）
作者简介:黄卓帆(1989-),女,理学学士,工程师,主要从事中短期天气预报及研究。E-mail:zhuofanbanban@163.com
通讯作者:梁岱云(1972-),女,高级工程师,主要从事灾害性天气预报及研究。E-mail:1037314711@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01