[1]张丁丁,黄莉,周琰.2020年广西南宁一次极端暴雨特征及预报偏差分析[J].气象研究与应用,2022,43(03):72-76.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2022.3.13]
　Zhang Dingding,Huang Li,Zhou Yan.Analysis on the characteristics and forecast deviation of an extreme rainstorm in Nanning city in 2020[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2022,43(03):72-76.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2022.3.13]
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2020年广西南宁一次极端暴雨特征及预报偏差分析()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第43卷
期数:
2022年03期
页码:
72-76
栏目:
暴雨预报技术复盘总结
出版日期:
2022-09-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis on the characteristics and forecast deviation of an extreme rainstorm in Nanning city in 2020
作者:
张丁丁;  黄莉;  周琰
南宁市气象局, 南宁 530029
Author(s):
Zhang Dingding;  Huang Li;  Zhou Yan
Nanning Meteorological Bureau, Nanning 530029, China
关键词:
极端暴雨; 中尺度对流系统; 地面辐合线; MODE检验
Keywords:
extreme rainstorm; mesoscale convective system; ground convergence line; MODE
分类号:
P458.121.1
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2022.3.13
摘要:
利用常规观测数据，对2020年6月24-25日广西南宁的极端暴雨过程进行分析。结果表明，极端暴雨发生于大陆副热带高压和西太平洋副热带高压对峙、西南季风活跃的有利背景下，高空槽缓慢东移引导切变线、弱冷空气南下，西太平洋副热带高压西北侧的低空急流为强降水的发生提供了异常充足的水汽、不稳定能量条件；此次过程的雨带分布和雨团活动与两个阶段的中尺度对流系统（MCS）发展演变有关，不同阶段的强回波都具有后向传播、低质心的特征，列车效应明显；极端短时强降水出现在TBB ≤-90℃附近；欧洲中期天气预报中心高分辨率模式（ECMWF_HR）预报强降水落区偏北、强度偏弱，ECMWF_HR模式对于天气系统预报偏北是导致暴雨预报偏差的主要原因。
Abstract:
Based on conventional observation data, the extreme rainstorm process in Nanning City, Guangxi from June 24 to 25, 2020 was analyzed. The results showed that the extreme rainstorm occurred in the favorable background of the confrontation between the subtropical high and the continental high, and the active southwest monsoon. The upper-layer trough slowly moved eastward to guide the shear line and the weak cold air to move southward. The low-level jet on the northwest side of the subtropical high provided abnormally sufficient water vapor and unstable energy conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. The results of satellite cloud images and radar observation showed that the distribution of rain bands and the activity of rain clusters were related to the development and evolution of MCS in two stages. The strong echoes in different stages had the characteristics of backward propagation and low mass center, and its train effect was obvious. The extreme short-time severe precipitation occurred nearby the region of TBB ≤ -90℃. Compared with the observation, the rainfall area and the rainfall intensity predicted by the large-scale ECMWF_HR model was more northerly and more weak respectively, which were mainly due to the relatively northerly weather systems predicted by ECMWF_HR model.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2022-06-30。
基金项目:广西气象科研计划项目（桂气科2022ZL005）
作者简介:张丁丁(1989-),男,理学学士,工程师,主要从事灾害性天气预报与研究。E-mail:997861851@qq.com
通讯作者:黄莉(1971-),女,广西宾阳县人,正研级高级工程师,主要从事致灾性及城市高影响天气研究。E-mail:1162307446@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01