[1]彭定宇,刘国忠,何启玄.“23·6”北海极端暴雨特征与成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2023,44(04):59-63.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.4.09]
　PENG Dingyu,LIU Guozhong,HE Qixuan.Analysis of characteristics and causes of the “23·6” extreme rainstorm in Beihai[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2023,44(04):59-63.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.4.09]
点击复制

“23·6”北海极端暴雨特征与成因分析()
分享到：

气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第44卷
期数:
2023年04期
页码:
59-63
栏目:
2023年广西极端降水
出版日期:
2023-12-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of characteristics and causes of the “23·6” extreme rainstorm in Beihai
作者:
彭定宇1;  刘国忠2;  何启玄1
1. 北海市气象局, 广西 北海 536000;
2. 广西壮族自治区气象台, 南宁 530022
Author(s):
PENG Dingyu1;  LIU Guozhong2;  HE Qixuan1
1. Beihai Meteorological Bureau, Guangxi Beihai 536000, China;
2. Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022, China
关键词:
极端暴雨; 降雨特征; 成因分析
Keywords:
extreme rainstorm; rainfall characteristics; cause analysis
分类号:
P458.1+21.1
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.4.09
摘要:
利用地面、高空气象观测资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECWMF)0.25°×0.25°模式、风云气象卫星(FY-4)遥感信息、双偏振多普勒天气雷达探测数据等资料,对2023年6月7-10日北海暴雨过程的极端性特征与成因进行分析。结果表明:(1)此次暴雨过程由两个阶段的短时强降水组成,具有阶段性雨强大、过程积雨量大、强降雨集中等显著极端性特征。(2)高层辐散、中层副高位于两广交界、低层偏南急流强、季风低压停滞少动及地面弱冷空气入侵是极端暴雨形成的主要天气系统。(3)极端暴雨主要是由中尺度对流系统造成,云团稳定少动,对应的雷达回波为层积混合型降水回波,"列车效应"和低质心强回波长时间维持是造成极端降雨的直接原因。(4)风廓线VWP产品超低空急流的形成对强降水有一定的指示作用。
Abstract:
The extreme characteristics and causes of the rainstorm in Beihai during June 7-10, 2023 are analyzed by using MICAPS ground and high-altitude conventional meteorological observation data, ECWMF model data with 0.25°×0.25° resolution, FY-4 satellite data, dual polarization Doppler weather radar detection. The results show that:(1)The rainstorm is dominated by sustained short-term heavy rainfall, with significant extreme characteristics in terms of strong rainfall, large accumulated rainfall, and long duration of heavy rainfall.(2)The main weather systems responsible for the formation of the extreme rainstorm are the upper-level divergence, the mid-level subtropical high located at the junction of Guangdong and Guangxi, the strong low-level southerly jet, the stagnant monsoon depression and the invasion of weak cold air on the ground.(3)The extreme rainstorm is mainly caused by the mesoscale convective system. The cloud cluster is stable and less dynamic, and the corresponding radar echoes are the stratocumulus-mixed precipitation echoes. The "train effect" and the long-term maintenance of the low centroid strong echo are the direct causes of extreme rainfall.(4)The formation of the ultra-low-altitude jet stream on the wind profile VWP product is indicative of heavy precipitation.

参考文献/References:

[1] 李泽椿.我国的气象灾害及科学防灾减灾[J].中国应急管理,2007(7):22-27.
[2] 谌芸,孙军,徐珺,等.北京"7·21"特大暴雨极端性分析及思考(一)观测分析及思考[J].气象,2012,38(10):1255-1266.
[3] 孙军,谌芸,杨舒楠,等.北京"7·21"特大暴雨极端性分析及思考(二)极端性降水成因初探及思考[J].气象,2012,38(10):1267-1277.
[4] 赵洋洋,张庆红,杜宇,等.北京"7·21"特大暴雨环流形势极端性客观分析[J].气象学报,2013,71(5):817-824.
[5] 雷蕾,孙继松,何娜,等."7·20"华北特大暴雨过程中低涡发展演变机制研究[J].气象学报,2017,75(5):685-699.
[6] 栗呛,王新敏,张霞,等.河南"7·19"豫北罕见特大暴雨降水特征及极端性分析[J].气象,2018,44(9):1136-1147.
[7] 齐道日娜,何立富,王秀明,等."7·20"河南极端暴雨精细观测及热动力成因[J].应用气象学报,2022,33(1):1-15.
[8] 张霞,杨慧,王新敏,等."21·7"河南极端强降水特征及环流异常性分析[J].大气科学学报,2021,44(5):672-687.
[9] 周云霞,翟丽萍,何珊珊.2019年"5·27"广西靖西市极端暴雨成因及可预报性分析[J].气象研究与应用,2020, 41(2):68-74.
[10] 李向红,张雅昕,周希源,等.2022年桂林"龙舟水"降水特征及形成机制分析[J].气象研究与应用,2023,44(1):26-32.
[11] 黄芳,刘国忠,黄增俊,等."22·06"广西极端暴雨过程低空急流作用[J].气象研究与应用,2023,44(3):1-8.
[12] 张丁丁,黄莉,周琰,等.2020年广西南宁一次极端暴雨特征及预报偏差分析[J].气象研究与应用,2022,43(3):72-76.
[13] 叶爱芬.多普勒雷达VWP产品在一次大暴雨过程中的特征[J].广东气象,2007(1):19-21.
[14] 夏文梅,陈楠,程婷,等.降水过程中多普勒天气雷达风廓线产品特征[J].气象,2008,34(10):22-26.
[15] 王君.郑州一次暴雨过程的多普勒雷达风廓线产品特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2018,38(3):85-90.
[16] 刘淑媛,郑永光,陶祖钰.利用风廓线雷达资料分析低空急流的脉动与暴雨关系[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(3):285-290.

相似文献/References:

[1]王盛繁.2017年7月初广西极端暴雨过程诊断分析[J].气象研究与应用,2019,40(03):18.
　Wang Shengfan.Diagnostic Analysis of Extreme Rainstorm Process in Early July 2017 in Guangxi[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2019,40(04):18.
[2]钱维宏,陈绿文,栗晗.中期模式扰动量在广州－东莞极端暴雨中的解释应用[J].气象研究与应用,2020,41(02):7.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2020.2.02]
　Qian weihong,Chen Lyuwen,Li Han.Interpretation and application of the anomalous parameters predicted by medium-range numerical weather forecast model in the Guangzhou-Dongguan extremely heavy rain event[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2020,41(04):7.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2020.2.02]
[3]周云霞,翟丽萍,何珊珊.2019年“5．27”广西靖西市极端暴雨成因及可预报性分析[J].气象研究与应用,2020,41(02):68.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2020.2.14]
　Zhou Yunxia,Zhai Liping,He Shanshan.Causes and predictability of extreme rainstorm in Jingxi City on May 27,2019[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2020,41(04):68.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2020.2.14]
[4]张丁丁,黄莉,周琰.2020年广西南宁一次极端暴雨特征及预报偏差分析[J].气象研究与应用,2022,43(03):72.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2022.3.13]
　Zhang Dingding,Huang Li,Zhou Yan.Analysis on the characteristics and forecast deviation of an extreme rainstorm in Nanning city in 2020[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2022,43(04):72.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2022.3.13]
[5]梁岱云,张丁丁,苏兆达,等.南宁市极端暴雨气候背景及天气学分型初探[J].气象研究与应用,2022,43(04):66.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2022.4.11]
　Liang Daiyun,Zhang Jingding,Su Zaoda,et al.Preliminary study on climatic background and weather classification of extreme rainstorm in Nanning city[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2022,43(04):66.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2022.4.11]
[6]刘国忠,覃月凤,覃卫坚,等.2022年广西极端“龙舟水”暴雨过程环境场特征分析[J].气象研究与应用,2023,44(01):7.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.1.02]
　Liu Guozhong,Qin Yuefeng,Qin Weijian,et al.Analysis of environmental field characteristics of an extreme dragon-boat precipitation process in Guangxi in 2022[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2023,44(04):7.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.1.02]
[7]蒋亚平,农明哲,马智,等.2022年广西“6·11”极端暴雨成因及预报偏差分析[J].气象研究与应用,2023,44(01):57.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.1.10]
　Jiang Yaping,Nong Mingzhe,Ma Zhi,et al.Analysis of the causes and forecast deviations of the extreme rainstorm in Guangxi on June 11, 2022[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2023,44(04):57.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.1.10]
[8]庞传伟,蒋荣群,李向红,等.基于尺度分离的桂东北一次极端暴雨成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2023,44(01):64.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.1.11]
　Pang Chuanwei,Jiang Rongqun,Li Xianghong,et al.Analysis of the causes of an extreme rainstorm in northeastern Guangxi based on scale decomposition[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2023,44(04):64.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.1.11]
[9]潘仕球,唐小琴,唐熠,等.桂北地区前汛期两次极端强降水成因对比分析[J].气象研究与应用,2023,44(04):36.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.4.06]
　PAN Shiqiu,TANG Xiaoqin,TANG Yi,et al.Comparative analysis of the causes of two extreme heavy rainfalls during the previous flood season in northern Guangxi[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2023,44(04):36.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.4.06]
[10]唐文,刘国忠,覃月凤,等.台风“暹芭”引发广西极端强降水成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2024,45(02):126.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.2.21]
　TANG Wen,LIU Guozhong,QIN Yuefeng,et al.Analysis of the causes of extreme rainfall in Guangxi caused by typhoon“CHABA”[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2024,45(04):126.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.2.21]
[11]黄芳,刘国忠,黄增俊,等.“22·06”广西极端暴雨过程低空急流作用[J].气象研究与应用,2023,44(03):1.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.3.01]
　HUANG Fang,LIU Guozhong,HUANG Zengjun,et al.The effect of low-level jet during the “22·06” extreme heavy rainstorm in Guangxi in 2022[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2023,44(04):1.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2023.3.01]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2023-11-25。
基金项目:中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(22NLTSY011)、中国气象局复盘总结专项项目(FPZJ2023-095)、广西气象科研计划创新平台专项(桂气科BNCO-S202305)
作者简介:彭定宇(1990-),男,工程师,主要从事中短期天气预报服务。E-mail:405966290@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01