[1]王平,程清平,孔国陈,等.云南盘龙河流域53年来相对湿度变化特征分析与预测[J].气象研究与应用,2016,37(01):15-20.
　Wang Ping,Cheng Qing-ping,Kong Guo-chen,et al.Variation characteristics analysis and Forecast of relative humidity over past 53 years in Panlong river basin of Yunnan[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2016,37(01):15-20.
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云南盘龙河流域53年来相对湿度变化特征分析与预测()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第37卷
期数:
2016年01期
页码:
15-20
栏目:
天气气候
出版日期:
2016-12-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Variation characteristics analysis and Forecast of relative humidity over past 53 years in Panlong river basin of Yunnan
作者:
王平1;  程清平1; 2;  孔国陈1;  王倩1
1 云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院, 云南昆明 650500;
2 福建师范大学地理科学学院, 福建福州 350007
Author(s):
Wang Ping1;  Cheng Qing-ping1; 2;  Kong Guo-chen1;  Wang Qian1
1. School of Tourism and Geographical Sciences, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming Yunnan 650500, China;
2. College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou Fujian 350007, China
关键词:
盘龙河流域; 相对湿度; 变化特征; 预测
Keywords:
Panlong river basin; relative humidity; variation characteristic; forecast
分类号:
P46
摘要:
根据盘龙河流域麻栗坡气象站1961~2013年逐月相对湿度观测数据,应用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall检验、方差分析外推法、R/S分析、均生函数预测模型等,分析了盘龙河流域53年来相对湿度变化特征,并对未来变化趋势作了预测。结果表明:年和各季相对湿度均呈减少趋势,尤以春季减少贡献最大;除年和夏、冬季相对湿度外,各季相对湿度均有显著的突变特征;年相对湿度20年和夏季19年的变化周期十分显著,置信度达99%;盘龙河流域年和各季相对湿度在2014-2028年将呈波动减少趋势。
Abstract:
Based on monthly relative humidity data from 1961 to 2013 from Ma Lipo meteorological station in Panlong river basin, the relative humidity variation characteristics in past 53years were analyzed and its changing tendency in future was forecasted by linear trend method, Mann-Kendall test, R/S analysis and the prediction model of mean generation function. The results show that both annual and seasonal relative humidity present reduce trend with the largest contribution in spring; except annual, summer and winter relative humidity the rest relative humidity display significantly mutation characteristics. Annual relative humidity for 20 years and summer for 19 years change cycles were significant with 99% confidence. Annual and seasonal relative humidity of Panlong river basin will see a fluctuating decrease trend in the 2014-2028.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2015-08-15。
基金项目:"低纬高原环境与区域发展"云南省特色优势学科群建设项目和"云南老山自然保护区综合科学考察"项目资助。
作者简介:王平(1965-),男,副教授,硕士生导师,主要从事区域自然地理和自然环境保护研究,ynwangping@163.com。
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01