[1]肖志祥,黎金玲,罗小莉.1415号台风“海鸥”广西极端暴雨预报偏差分析及地形订正[J].气象研究与应用,2021,42(04):14-19.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.4.03]
　Xiao zhixiang,Li jinling,Luo xiaoli.Bias analysis and topographic correction of Guangxi extreme rainstorm forecast of Typhoon Kalmaegi[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2021,42(04):14-19.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.4.03]
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1415号台风“海鸥”广西极端暴雨预报偏差分析及地形订正()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第42卷
期数:
2021年04期
页码:
14-19
栏目:
广西台风团队专栏
出版日期:
2022-01-27

文章信息/Info

Title:
Bias analysis and topographic correction of Guangxi extreme rainstorm forecast of Typhoon Kalmaegi
作者:
肖志祥1;  黎金玲2;  罗小莉3
1. 广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所，南宁 530022;
2. 河池市气象局，广西 河池 547099;
3. 广西壮族自治区气候中心，南宁 530022
Author(s):
Xiao zhixiang1;  Li jinling2;  Luo xiaoli3
1. Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Nanning 530022, China;
2. Hechi Meteorological Bureau, Hechi Guangxi 547099;
3. Guangxi Climate Center, Nanning 530022, China
关键词:
“海鸥”; 台风降水; 偏差; 地形订正; 风向
Keywords:
Kalmaegi; typhoon precipitation; deviation; topographic correction; wind direction
分类号:
P458.1+21
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.4.03
摘要:
利用地面自动站降水资料、ERA5再分析资料、广西壮族自治区气象台降水落区和ECMWF模式预报数据对1415号台风“海鸥”在广西暴雨预报偏差进行了分析，并开展了地形降水订正研究。结果表明，对“海鸥”强降水落区预报准确，但大暴雨以上量级降水明显偏弱，大暴雨和特大暴雨漏报严重。降水经地形订正后，大暴雨以上降水TS（BS）评分由0.19（0.27）大幅度提升到0.35（0.53）且暴雨及以下量级降水评分无明显改变，但地形降水订正方法对特大暴雨仍无明显订正技巧；偏南风、东北风及偏东风在广西复杂地形下均会产生地形降水，实际业务预报中应加以考虑，有助于提升对强降水开始时间的预报效果。
Abstract:
Based on the precipitation data of ground automatic station, reanalysis data of ERA5, precipitation falling area of Guangxi Meteorological Observatory and ECMWF model prediction data, the rainstorm prediction deviation of Typhoon Kalmaegi in Guangxi was analyzed, and the topographic precipitation correction was carried out. The results show that the prediction of heavy precipitation area is accurate, but the precipitation above downpour is obviously underestimated, downpour and torrential rain are seriously underreported. After the topographic correction of precipitation, the TS(BS)score of precipitation above downpour is greatly increased from 0.19(0.27)to 0.35(0.53), and the precipitation score of rainstorm and below has no obvious change, but the topographic precipitation correction method still has no obvious correction skills for torrential rain. The southerly wind, northeast wind and easterly wind will produce topographic precipitation under the complex terrain of Guangxi. It should be considered in the actual operational prediction, which will help to improve the prediction effect of the start time of heavy precipitation.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2021-11-10。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41905077）、广西气象科研计划项目（桂气科2021ZL05）、广西台风与海洋预报服务创新团队项目、广西重点研发计划（桂科AB21075005）
作者简介:肖志祥（1986—），男，博士，高级工程师，主要从事天气气候研究。E-mail：xiaozx_gx@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01