我国城市化经济集聚与气温集聚的实证研究-气象研究与应用

文章信息/Info

Title:: An Empirical Study on Economic Agglomeration of China’s City And Temperature Aggregation

Author(s):: WANG Donglin; Engineering Consulting Center of China Meterological Administration, Beijing 100086, China

Keywords:: economic agglomeration; temperature aggregation; urbanization; empirical study

摘要:: 首先用Herfindahl指数来测算我国城市的经济集聚度水平与气温集聚度水平,运用SPSS20.0进行相关性检验,证明了经济集聚度与气温集聚度存在很强的正相关关系,即经济的集聚加速了气温的集聚,并且气温的集聚态势趋同于经济的集聚态势;其次,收集并整理了我国2003~2012年30个直辖市及省会城市的面板数据,运用混合模型估计方法与随机效应模型估计方法进行研究,得出经济集聚度、人口集聚度、产业结构、固定资产投资对气温集聚度的影响都是正向的;绿化面积对气温集聚度的影响是负向的,并由此提出了一些建议。

Abstract:: First of all, the economic agglomeration degree and the temperature aggregation degree of China’s city were measured by the Herfindahl index, and the correlation test by SPSS20.0 proved the strong positive correlation between economic agglomeration degree and temperature aggregation degree, namely, economic agglomeration accelerates temperature aggregation, and the trend of temperature aggregation is similar to the trend of economic agglomeration. Secondly, the collected and classified panel data in China from 2003 to 2012 in 30 direct-controlled municipalities and provincial capital cities were researched by using the mixture model estimation method and random effects model estimation method, which get the result that the economic agglomeration, the population agglomeration, industrial structure, investment in fixed assets effect on the temperature agglomeration are positive; the green area effect on the temperature agglomeration is negative.