[1]陈伟斌,韩慎友,刘国忠.欧洲集合预报产品降水预报检验分析[J].气象研究与应用,2017,38(02):6-9.
　Chen Weibin,Han Shenyou,Liu Guozhong.Analysis on ensemble prediction products of the rainfall forecast verification[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2017,38(02):6-9.
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欧洲集合预报产品降水预报检验分析()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第38卷
期数:
2017年02期
页码:
6-9
栏目:
天气气候
出版日期:
2017-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis on ensemble prediction products of the rainfall forecast verification
作者:
陈伟斌;  韩慎友;  刘国忠
广西气象台 南宁 530022
Author(s):
Chen Weibin;  Han Shenyou;  Liu Guozhong
Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022
关键词:
集合预报; 降水; 检验
Keywords:
ensemble prediction products; rainfall; verification
分类号:
P456
摘要:
对2012-2015年欧洲集合预报产品广西降水预报性能进行了TS检验得出24-96预报时效不同百分位以及各月份在一般降水、晴雨和暴雨及以上等降水项目的表现情况；进一步对区域暴雨过程进行总体情况和分类检验，获得不同产品在不同降水量级预报性能特点。此项工作可为预报员更好的使用集合预报产品提供参考依据。
Abstract:
Based on the TS verification of the forecasting abilities of the ECMWF ensemble prediction products from 2012 to 2015, the performance of different quantile products and different levels of rainfall in each month like:heavy rainfall, general rainfall and cloud-free rainfall at 24-96h forecasts time were found out. According to the results of further verification on the general situation and classification of regional rainstorm process, the characteristics of different products in different precipitation levels were obtained. This work can provide a reference for the forecaster to better use of ensemble forecast products.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2017-01-23。
基金项目:广西自然科学基金"基于集合预报的广西暴雨预报预警技术研究"（2015GXNSFBA139193）和广西气象局重点项目"基于集合预报的广西降水精细化预报方法研究"共同资助。
作者简介:陈伟斌,主要从事灾害性天气预报技术研究,E-mail:wbchen321@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01