[1]卢小凤,李仲怡,陈剑飞,等.智能网格产品在西江流域面雨量预报中的应用检验[J].气象研究与应用,2020,41(02):45-49.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2020.2.09]
　Lu Xiaofeng,Li Zhongyi,Chen Jianfei,et al.Application test of intelligent grid products in Xijiang River Basin precipitation forecast[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2020,41(02):45-49.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2020.2.09]
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智能网格产品在西江流域面雨量预报中的应用检验()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第41卷
期数:
2020年02期
页码:
45-49
栏目:
新技术应用
出版日期:
2020-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Application test of intelligent grid products in Xijiang River Basin precipitation forecast
作者:
卢小凤1;  李仲怡1;  陈剑飞1;  叶庚姣1;  陈丹2
1. 广西壮族自治区气象灾害防御技术中心, 南宁 530022;
2. 广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所, 南宁 530022
Author(s):
Lu Xiaofeng1;  Li Zhongyi1;  Chen Jianfei1;  Ye Gengjiao1;  Chen Dan2
1. Guangxi Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Technology Center, Nanning 530022;
2. Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Science, Nanning 530022
关键词:
智能网格; 面雨量; 预报; 检验; 西江流域
Keywords:
intelligent grid; areal rainfall; forecast; test; Xijiang River Basin
分类号:
P49
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2020.2.09
摘要:
为了解基于智能网格降水产品的西江流域面雨量短期预报效果，采用TS评分、漏报率、空报率指标对2019年前汛期（4-6月）和后汛期（7-9月）西江流域20-20时的日面雨量预报进行检验评估。结果表明，汛期各流域TS评分随着面雨量等级增大呈现下降趋势，然而72h内随着预报时效延长，预报效果较为稳定；前汛期东部流域TS评分较西部流域普遍高，而后汛期西部流域的TS评分有所上升；前汛期各级面雨量空报率大于漏报率，而后汛期各级面雨量漏报率较前汛期普遍上升，空报率普遍下降。72h内预报效果受到降水量级因素影响较大，而受到时效延长影响较小；流域预报效果变化可能与西江流域汛期雨带逐渐推进变化有关。
Abstract:
In order to study the effect of short-term area rainfall forecast of Xijiang River Basin based on intelligent grid precipitation products, the TS scores, false negative rate, and empty report rate indicators are used for the evaluation of daily area rainfall forecast from 8 pm to 8 pm in Xijiang River Basin during the pre-flood season (April-June) and the post-flood season (July-September). The results showed that the TS score of each basin in flood season decreased with the increase of areal rainfall level, but the prediction effect was relatively stable with the extension of prediction time within 72 hours. The TS score of the eastern basin in pre-flood season was generally higher than that of the western basin, while that of the western basin in the post-flood season was higher. In the pre-flood season, the absent forecast quotiety of area rainfall was higher than that of missing rate; in the post-flood season, the missing rate was generally higher than that in the pre-flood season, while the absent forecast quotiety became lower. That is to say, the forecast effect within 72 hours was greatly affected by precipitation magnitude factors, but less affected by time lapse; the changes of basin forecast effect may be related to the gradual advance of the rain belt in the flood season of Xijiang River Basin.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2020-05-09。
基金项目:广西气象局气象科研计划重点项目（桂气科2019Z05）
作者简介:卢小凤(1986-),女,广西百色人,硕士,工程师,主要从事专业气象预报研究与服务。E-mail:luxiaofeng_330@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01