[1]秦俊灵,沈瑞珊,秦玉萍.EC细网格2m温度对沧州市的预报能力检验及订正[J].气象研究与应用,2019,40(04):12-17.
　Qin Junling,Shen Ruishan,Qin Yuping.Prediction ability test and correction of Cangzhou City by 2m temperature data of EC fine-grid model[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2019,40(04):12-17.
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EC细网格2m温度对沧州市的预报能力检验及订正()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第40卷
期数:
2019年04期
页码:
12-17
栏目:
天气气候
出版日期:
2019-12-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Prediction ability test and correction of Cangzhou City by 2m temperature data of EC fine-grid model
作者:
秦俊灵1;  沈瑞珊1;  秦玉萍2
1. 河北省沧州市气象局, 河北 沧州 061001;
2. 河北省怀来县气象局, 河北 怀来 075400
Author(s):
Qin Junling1;  Shen Ruishan1;  Qin Yuping2
1. Cangzhou Meteorological Service, Cangzhou Hebei 061001;
2. Huailai Meteorological Service, Huailai Hebei 075400
关键词:
EC模式; 2m温度; 检验订正
Keywords:
EC model; 2m temperature; test correction
分类号:
P46
摘要:
利用EC模式对2017年沧州市14个国家基本站2m最高、最低温度的24、48、72h预报结果，采用预报准确率、平均误差、平均绝对误差和皮尔森相关系数等统计方法进行检验及订正。结果表明：EC模式对不同预报时效预报准确率，最高温度模式20时起报高于08时，最低温度08时起报高于20时；随着预报时效的延长，模式预报准确率逐渐下降。预报准确率最高温度区域差异不明显，月际变化大；最低温度区域差异显著，月际变化不均。EC模式对沧州温度的预报误差主要由系统误差造成，温度预报绝大多数的大值误差出现在转折性天气阶段，当出现明显升温和高温时，最高温度预报偏低更明显，出现明显降温时，最低温度预报偏高。对2018年1-4月EC模式预报最高、最低温度进行系统和大误差订正检验，发现订正后预报效果更好。
Abstract:
Based on the 24, 48 and 72h forecast results of the highest and lowest 2 m temperature at 14 national basic stations in Cangzhou City in 2017, statistical methods, such as forecast accuracy, average error, average absolute error and Pearson correlation coefficient, were used to evaluate and revise the EC model results. The results showed that the highest temperature accuracy of EC model 8 pm was better than 8 am, while the lowest temperature 8am was better than 8 pm. As the forecasting time was extended, the accuracy of the model forecast was gradually decreasing. The regional difference of the highest temperature prediction accuracy was not obvious, while the monthly variation was large; the difference in the lowest temperature region was significant, and the monthly variation is uneven. The prediction error of EC model for Cangzhou temperature was mainly caused by systematic error. Most of the large-value error of temperature prediction occurred in the transitional weather stage. When there was obvious temperature rise or high temperature, the highest temperature forecast was easier to be lower. When there was a significant cooling, the lowest temperature forecast was higher. To sum up, the systematic and large error correction tests were carried out for the highest and lowest temperatures of the EC model forecast for the January-April 2018 period, and it was found that the forecast effect was better after correction.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-03-21。
作者简介:秦俊灵(1989-),河北省沧州人,工程师,主要从事短期天气预报工作。E-mail:1005647511@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01