[1]赵飞,包文雯,张雪波,等.台风“浪卡”(2016)暴雨成因及数值预报模式偏差分析[J].气象研究与应用,2021,42(03):83-87.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.3.14]
　Zhao Fei,Bao Wenwen,Zhang Xuebo,et al.Typhoon Nangka (2016) rainstorm causes and deviation analysis of numerical forecast model[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2021,42(03):83-87.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.3.14]
点击复制

台风“浪卡”(2016)暴雨成因及数值预报模式偏差分析()
分享到：

气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第42卷
期数:
2021年03期
页码:
83-87
栏目:
技术总结
出版日期:
2021-10-08

文章信息/Info

Title:
Typhoon Nangka (2016) rainstorm causes and deviation analysis of numerical forecast model
作者:
赵飞1;  包文雯1;  张雪波1;  韦美闹1;  梁利1;  黄明策2
1. 钦州市气象局, 广西 钦州 535000;
2. 广西壮族自治区气象台, 南宁 530022
Author(s):
Zhao Fei1;  Bao Wenwen1;  Zhang Xuebo1;  Wei Meinao1;  Liang Li1;  Huang Mingce2
1. Qinzhou Meteorological Bureau, Qinzhou Guangxi 535000;
2. Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning Guangxi 530022
关键词:
台风"浪卡"(2016); 台风暴雨; 成因; 数值模式偏差
Keywords:
Typhoon Nangka (2016); typhoon rainstorm; cause of formation; numerical model deviation
分类号:
P457.8
DOI:
10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.3.14
摘要:
利用常规气象资料及NCEP再分析资料，采用天气学分析和检验方法，对2020年第16号台风"浪卡"造成广西暴雨的成因及数值模式预报偏差原因进行分析。结果表明：（1）南亚高压快速西移使高层辐散加强，500 hPa台风倒槽加强，低层东南急流形成的水汽强辐合，地面冷空气侵入的触发抬升是造成此次台风暴雨的主要原因；（2）副热带高压加强西伸使台风与高压之间气压梯度增大，高原东侧低压槽与台风倒槽的结合是造成500hPa台风倒槽发展加强的重要原因；（3）登陆越南后路径预报偏南、登陆后副高强度预报偏强、低空偏东风急流漏报以及地面冷空气预报偏强是EC数值模式暴雨落区预报偏差的原因。
Abstract:
Using conventional meteorological data and NCEP reanalysis data, Typhoon Nangka rainstorm causes in Guangxi, 2020 and the causes of deviation of numerical model prediction are analyzed by using synoptic analysis and test methods. Using conventional meteorological data and NCEP reanalysis data, synoptic analysis and verification methods were used to analyze the rainstorm reasons in Guangxi caused by Typhoon No. 16 Nangka in 2020 and the reasons for the deviation of numerical model forecasts. The results show that(1) the rapid westward movement of the South Asian High strengthening the high-level divergence, the 500 hPa typhoon-inverted trough strengthening, the low-level southeast jet forming the strong convergence of water vapor, and the triggered uplift of the ground cold air intrusion are the main reasons for the typhoon rainstorm.(2) The strengthening and westward extension of subtropical high increased the pressure gradient between typhoon and high pressure. The combination of low-pressure trough and typhoon-inverted trough in the east of plateau was an important reason for the development and strengthening of 500hPa typhoon-inverted trough.(3) After landing in Vietnam, the path prediction was southward, the subtropical high intensity prediction was stronger, the low altitude easterly jet was not reported, and the ground cold air prediction was stronger, which are the reasons for the prediction deviation of the rainstorm falling area of the EC numerical model.

参考文献/References:

[1] 杜惠良,黄新晴,冯晓伟,等.弱冷空气与台风残留低压相互作用对一次大暴雨过程的影响[J].气象,2011,37(7):849-856.
[2] 吴海英,陈海山,曾明剑,等.冷空气对台风"海葵"(1211)倒槽特大暴雨作用分析[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(5):871-880.
[3] 何立富,许爱华,陈涛."泰利"台风低压大暴雨过程冷空气与地形的作用[J].气象科技,2009,37(4):385-391,513.
[4] 黄增俊,黄归兰,丘良,等.冷空气侵入超强台风"海燕"造成广西强降雨增幅成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2015, 36(1):31-37.
[5] 蒙炤臻,陈见,韩慎友,等.广西台风残涡暴雨发生特征分析[J].气象研究与应用,2017,38(1):20-25.
[6] 黄滢,许文龙,郭亮,等.0917秋季台风"芭玛"移动特点和暴雨成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2012,33(S1):19-21.
[7] 高安宁, 张瑞波. 2011年秋季强台风"纳沙"导致广西灾害成因分析[J]. 灾害学, 2013,28(1):54-58.
[8] 黄莉,黄增俊,白龙,等.台风"海燕"(2013)暴雨非对称结构及中尺度特征分析[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(3):334-344.
[9] 黄滢,潘一铭,蒋静.秋季台风"海燕"的特点及成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2019,40(3):13-17.
[10] 黄莉,白龙,李紫甜.适当冷空气对秋季台风暴雨增幅作用研究[J].灾害学,2018,33(2):38-44.

相似文献/References:

[1].1306号台风“温比亚”影响广西特点分析[J].气象研究与应用,2014,35(01):25.
[2]黄翠银,农孟松,陈剑飞,等.台风“山神”和“海燕”对广西影响对比分析[J].气象研究与应用,2014,35(02):7.
[3]洪展.一次台风暴雨过程的水汽特征分析[J].气象研究与应用,2014,35(04):16.
[4]赖雨薇,苏兆达,梁岱云.多普勒雷达和卫星在监测正面影响桂中台风的应用[J].气象研究与应用,2016,37(01):61.
　Lai Yu-wei,Su Zhao-da,Liang Dai-yun.Applications of Doppler radar and satellite on monitoring typhoon directly affecting GuiZhong[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2016,37(03):61.
[5]黄增俊,黄归兰,丘良,等.冷空气侵入超强台风“海燕”造成广西强降雨增幅成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2015,36(01):31.
　Huang zengjun,Huang guilan,Qiu liang,et al.Analysis on Increase of Strong Rain Caused by Cold Invading Air Super Typhoon Haiyan in Guangxi[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2015,36(03):31.
[6]陆芊芊,黄卓.广西台风与非台风暴雨时空变化特征差异分析[J].气象研究与应用,2021,42(03):12.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.3.03]
　Lu Qianqian,Huang Zhuo.Analysis on the differences of temporal and spatial variation characteristics of Guangxi typhoon and non-typhoon rainstorm[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2021,42(03):12.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.3.03]
[7]宁子杰,包文雯,陈峥蓉,等.台风“浪卡”(2016)暴雨特点及卫星云图特征分析[J].气象研究与应用,2021,42(03):88.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.3.15]
　Ning Zijie,Bao Wenwen,Chen Zhengrong,et al.Typhoon Nangka (2016) rainstorm characteristics and satellite cloud image characteristics analysis[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2021,42(03):88.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2021.3.15]
[8]蒙金凤,龙俊宇,梁虹,等.基于K-均值聚类法和EOF分析的贵港市台风暴雨特征分析[J].气象研究与应用,2024,45(03):44.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.3.06]
　MENG Jinfeng,LONG Junyu,LIANG Hong,et al.Analysis the Characteristics of typhoon rainstorm in Guigang based on K-Means Clustering Method and EOF Analysis[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2024,45(03):44.[doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2024.3.06]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2021-07-23。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41905077）、钦州市科学研究与技术开发计划项目（202014806）
作者简介:赵飞(1989-),广西玉林人,工程师,主要从事气象预报服务工作。E-mail:397630204@qq.com
通讯作者:黄明策(1977-),广西南宁人,博士,正高级工程师,主要从事灾害性天气预报技术方法研究和应用。E-mail:luckyhmc@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01