[1]姚才,罗小莉,张成扬,等.7-9月登陆华南台风气候变化特征及大尺度环流系统分析[J].气象研究与应用,2019,40(01):1-6,10.
　Yao Cai,Luo Xiaoli,Zhang Chengyang,et al.The climatic changes of landfall typhoons in South China in July-September and the associated large-scale circulation[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2019,40(01):1-6,10.
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7-9月登陆华南台风气候变化特征及大尺度环流系统分析()
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气象研究与应用[ISSN:1673-8411/CN:45-1356/P]

卷:
第40卷
期数:
2019年01期
页码:
1-6,10
栏目:
天气气候
出版日期:
2019-04-05

文章信息/Info

Title:
The climatic changes of landfall typhoons in South China in July-September and the associated large-scale circulation
作者:
姚才1;  罗小莉2;  张成扬3;  肖志祥4;  孙红梅4
1. 广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所, 南宁 530022;
2. 广西壮族自治区气象服务中心, 南宁 530022;
3. 广西壮族自治区气候中心, 南宁 530022;
4. 广西壮族自治区气象台, 南宁 530022
Author(s):
Yao Cai1;  Luo Xiaoli2;  Zhang Chengyang3;  Xiao Zhixiang4;  Sun Hongmei4
1. Guangxi Meteorological Science Institute, Nanning 530022;
2. Guangxi Weather Service Center, Nanning 530022;
3. Guangxi Climate Center, Nanning 530022;
4. Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022
关键词:
登陆华南; 台风; 气候变化; 大尺度环流系统
Keywords:
Landfall in South China; Typhoon; Climatic changes; large-scale circulation
分类号:
P467
摘要:
采用1949-2015年上海台风所提供的热带气旋资料、NCEP/NCAR全球再分析格点资料、国家气候中心提供的74项大气环流指数以及青藏高原积雪等资料，对7-9月登陆华南的热带气旋TC（不含热带低压）和台风TY（含台风及台风以上的热带气旋）的气候变化特征以及大尺度环流特征进行了分析，结果发现：7-9月登陆华南TC及TY频数均有微弱的上升趋势，且年际变化显著，但TC和TY年际变化和准十年波动变化并不总是一致，尤其是近10a来登陆华南的强台风有明显增加的趋势。7-9月登陆华南的TC占登陆中国的一半以上，并且有约3/4是来自西北太平洋生成的台风。从登陆华南TC的区间分布特征来看，以中路最多，西路次之，东路最少。亚洲季风偏弱、西太平洋副高偏西，登陆华南TY偏多，反之亦然。TC偏多（少）年，西太平洋副高偏强偏西（偏强偏东）。TC偏多年110°E以东引导气流出现的反气旋式和气旋式环流对较TC偏少年偏西，反气旋环流南部的东风异常一直延伸到华南地区东部，这样的东风引导气流异常有利于引导热带气旋登陆华南。另外，青藏高原东部和西部积雪偏多、华南气温偏高及西北太平洋海温异常偏暖的情况下也均有利于台风登陆华南。
Abstract:
By using the best track tropical cyclones dataset from Shanghai Institute of Typhoon of CMA, climatic changes of landfall tropical cyclones (TC, tropical depressions excluded) and landfall typhoons (TY, reach the grade of typhoon or above) in South China in July-September are revealed. And characteristics of the large-scale circulation are analyzed by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, the 74 indexes of the atmospheric circulation from National Climate Center and snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau. Results found that there is a slightly increase trend in the numbers of landfall TC and TY and it is characterized by significantly interannual variation. Furthermore, interannual variations of the TC and TY are not always in phase with their quasi ten year variation. Especially in the past 10 years, there is an obviously increase trend in the numbers of the strong typhoons landing in South China. The landfall TC in South China occupies half of that landfall in China and almost 75% of them generates over the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Most of the landfall TC tracks in middle path, followed by the west path and the east path suffers the least landfall TC. The weaker Asian summer monsoon and westward of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high is beneficial for TY landfall in South China, vice versa. However, the enhanced (weakened) and westward (eastward) of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high is advantage to more (less) TC landfall. The anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulation over the east of 110°E in more TC situation is more westward than less TC situation. Abnormal easterly steering flows over the south part of the anticyclonic circulation extends to South China, which eventually is favorable to more TC landing in South China. Above normal snow over the eastern and western Tibetan Plateau, air temperature, and sea surface temperature over northwest Pacific Ocean are beneficial to typhoons landfall in South China.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-12-1。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41465003）、（41665006）、（41575051）、（41765002）共同资助。
作者简介:姚才(1962-),男,博士,正研高工,主要从事天气气候研究,E-mail:dlhntfyj@126.com。
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01